Louis Grenier
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Capture Market Share

Gaining market share through marketing is a statistical fantasy. Decades of data across thousands of categories show that relative market share is extremely stable over years, even decades. Most 'brand growth' is just revenue growth from a category that's expanding on its own.

What most people mean

“We need to capture more market share.” The goal of marketing, according to most strategy decks. Beat competitors. Take their customers. Grow your slice of the pie.

The language tells you everything. “Capture.” “Win.” “Dominate.” “Conquer.” War vocabulary for a problem that requires empathy.

Where the definition breaks

Almost all marketing discussions, particularly those stemming from the “How Brands Grow” school of thought, are incorrectly focused on market share growth.

The data is uncomfortable. Gaining market share through marketing essentially never happens. We have almost a century of data across thousands of product categories showing that relative market share is extremely stable over years, and even decades.

The average five-year market share gain? A mere +0.01%. A third of all brands had zero market share growth. Another third actually saw market share losses.

Tide has been the #1 laundry detergent in the US since 1947. Boeing has been the #1 producer of commercial aircraft since 1929. The #1 spot in toothpaste has been a back-and-forth between Colgate and Crest since 1897.

Revenue growth and market share growth are not correlated. A brand can experience one while losing the other. In reality, over 99% of what we call “brand growth” is just revenue growth, often from a category that’s expanding on its own.

So when someone says “we captured market share,” what usually happened is the category grew and they grew with it. Or a competitor collapsed and their customers had to go somewhere.

How we define it at STFO

Stop trying to steal share from competitors. That’s not what marketing does.

Instead: be present when more buyers enter the category. Build distinctive assets so they remember you. Show up continuously in the right channels. Solve ignored struggles so they have a reason to choose you when the trigger hits.

The implication for how you spend your time and budget: instead of obsessing over competitive takeout campaigns, invest in category-level visibility and mental availability. The best thing you can do for growth is be the brand people think of first when they enter the market.

Pick a category with genuine demand. Build foundations. Show up consistently. The share takes care of itself.

What it is NOT

  • Not the goal of marketing (revenue growth is, and it usually comes from category growth)
  • Not something you “capture” through clever campaigns
  • Not evidence that your marketing worked (the category probably just expanded)
  • Not a useful KPI for most businesses (it’s stable for decades regardless of marketing spend)
  • Not war (stop using combat language for what should be an act of empathy)

"Over 99% of what we call 'brand growth' is just revenue growth, often from a category that's expanding on its own."

Louis Grenier, citing Dale Harrison's research

From Stand The F*ck Out (2024) by Louis Grenier, citing Dale Harrison's research on market share stability.

The Stand The F*ck Out framework, introduced by Louis Grenier in 2024, consists of four stages: insight foraging, unique positioning, distinctive brand, and continuous reach.

Louis Grenier, ready to talk positioning

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